Chip Industry: How US Succeeded & USSR flawed during cold war

 After 1945, there was arms race between the US and the USSR to prove their supremacy. Apart from this arms race, there was tight competition in science and technology between these nations. The USSR’s sputnik moment triggered American policy makers to announce that they were going to the moon, which they later achieved in 1969. Similarly, when the news of transistor invention by Shockley and IC invention by Jack Kilby/Noyce reached the USSR, their scientists/policymakers also wanted to emulate similar developments in modern electronics for their country.

Soviet scientists who were working in semiconductors in the 1960s were also not inferior to American scientists. Zhores Alferov (USSR Scientist), along with Jack Kilby, was awarded the Nobel Prize for his research related to IC invention. Soviet scientists produced an IC in 1962 after the yuri gagarin orbited the Earth. Soviet policymakers saw the success of Silicon Valley and wanted to build their own electronic city in the USSR. Nikita Khrushchev, the former premier of the Soviet Union, also approved a city that was planned to be a scientific paradise. The USSR named the city Zelenograd. Zelenograd and the surrounding infrastructure seemed to have begun the sunshine for the modern Soviet electronics industry. The Soviets, however, were unable to achieve success like Americans in semiconductors after decades.
There were two reasons attributed as per the book.

Copy Strategy

Even though the US and the USSR fought bitterly invisibly, there were few good things between them. A student exchange program was conducted between the two countries. Few bright Soviet students were studying in top-notch universities in the 1960s under the guidance of semiconductor inventors such as Shockley. The Texas Instruments SN51 chip was quite famous in the 60s. One Soviet bureaucrat Shokin asked a Soviet student and scientist named Malin to acquire the chip and smuggle it to the Soviet Union. When Malin arrived in the Soviet Union, he and other scientists were ordered to make a copy of a chip with 1:1 matching within three months. The scientists were shocked and angry with copy suggestion. They believed they were as advanced as American physicists and scientists.
The copy strategy worked well earlier for the Soviet Union when they built their first nuclear weapon. When Stalin found out about the Hiroshima bomb, he immediately asked his scientists to build a nuclear bomb as quickly as possible, throwing all the home-made designs they had worked for years. Stolen secret nuclear bombs provided by Klaus Fuchs (soviet spy who worked on the Manhattan project) successfully helped them to clone implosion based plutonium bombs within three years. American generals and bureaucrats believed that the Soviets wouldn’t be able to make nuclear bombs for 10 to 20 years. That belief destroyed in few years with aid of hardworking soviet scientists & shrewd decisions of soviet authoritarians.

Although Soviet scientists were forced to work on the copying process, they were not able to achieve the success that US companies like Texas instruments or Fairchild had achieved in a few years. The Soviet copy strategy for semiconductors was erroneous because the semiconductor manufacturing process was so complicated. Only a few engineers, like Andy Grove and Mary Anne Potter, could handle every step of the manufacturing process. Even if Soviet scientists were close to achieving success, they lacked mass production and reliability associated with it. The copying strategy could not produce any innovative chips due to Moore’s law. The cutting edge was enhanced within a few years due to Moore’s law. Texas Instruments and Fairchild went one step above Soviet chips every time they came close.

Civilian IC use and International Supply chain

The Soviets wanted to build a semiconductor industry mainly to help its military industry with precision and guidance. The U.S. used its semiconductor industry for civilian purposes as well for military purposes. Civilian chip demand has driven the US semiconductor industry to finance the necessary supply chain and create expertise in all areas of semiconductors field. The Soviet Union barely has a civilian consumer market, so it produced a fraction of chips like the US. Due to a lower number of chips produced, the Soviets faced heavy costs for capital investment and maintenance of semiconductor manufacturing units.

The U.S. also used its Cold War allies very effectively, boosting the international supply chain. In the 1980s, the US integrated its processor market along with Japan’s memory market, utilizing international labor. This made it a giant in the semiconductor and computing industries. The Soviet Union does not have all this.

Conclusion

The U.S. built its moon rocket with the Apollo guidance computer and sharpened its strategic “Minuteman” missile with high precision. These were the first fruits of US semiconductor success. The USSR had the same ambitions for rockets and missiles, a dream that never came true. Zelenograd has never achieved what it was created, but Silicon Valley has achieved remarkable success in the next few decades. The Persian Gulf War occurred in 1990. By that time, the USSR faded and became history. The New York Times headlined “WAR HERO Status possible for Chip,” indicating that the stellar success of the Persian Gulf War was fully attributable to computer chips.

Source: Chip wars

Wernher Von Braun, left, examines the Launch Vehicle Digital Computer used to guide the Saturn V rocket.

Scientific Brilliance of Atomic bomb making & How scientific community fought later

“It is an atomic bomb. It is a harnessing of the basic power of the universe. The force from which the sun draws its power has been loosed against those who brought war to the Far East” — Henry Truman(US President 1945) after dropping atomic bomb in hiroshima

If you’re a fan of science fiction movies, Christopher Nolan films are the most anticipated films of the year. In his films, he introduced fascinating science concepts, including ‘Time travels very slowly in dreams’ (from ‘Inception’), time dilation, and wormholes (in Interstellar). These scientific concepts after the release of his films, will make talk of them for certain months to the common audience, the media. The recent movie ‘Oppenheimer’ shares similar themes, resurrecting the atomic bomb and the dangers of nuclear bombs in certain areas. While the film travels more in the political persecution of the great scientist and father of the atomic bomb Dr J. Oppenheimer, it has patches of science behind the atomic bomb making. Oppenheimer served as the project manager for a weapon that posed a massive threat to human civilization, but the development of the atomic bomb was nonetheless regarded as an engineering wonder for all those involved. The pool of top scientists in the world at the time worked together magnificently. This significant technological advance in human history was made possible by a select group of inspirational scientists, who never gave up.Because of all the negative effects that the nuclear weapons race and atomic bomb will have on human society in the near future, these same inspired scientists battled against them. Science and technology have advanced recently, with examples being the human genome project and artificial intelligence. Scientists working with these technologies, which are frequently viewed as a threat to human civilization, can learn from the efforts of scientists working during the nuclear age, who banded together and advised their government not to exceed certain limitations in order to prevent Armageddon.

Who are they, How it is made ?

“It is a profound and necessary truth that the deep things in science are not found because they are useful; they were found because it was possible to find them.” —Dr J Robert Oppenheimer

The early 20th century was a golden era for physics and physicists. Leo Szilard, a well-known Hungarian scientist, was strolling alone down London Road in the early morning hours of October 1931. In a recent conference, his mentor Rutherford — a Nobel Prize winner and one of the most influential figures in physics — said that protons may divide an atom. It will release very little energy and have no use something similar to “Moonshine”. Obsessive Szilard firmly felt that every atom contains enormous energy and never trusted his mentor’s word. With this in mind, he approached a traffic light that was red at the moment. After a little while, a green light signal appeared, and the solution to his conundrum appeared in a flash. If a neutron bombards an atom, it divides into several pieces. When an atom is hit by a neutron, it splits into several pieces and releases a lot of energy. These liberated neutrons collide with another atom, splitting it, and liberating neutrons as well as additional significant energy. This uncontrolled activity is known as a nuclear chain reaction. The idea of a chain reaction originated at a traffic signal later led scientists to believe that nuclear energy could be used to build a bomb of terrifying proportions. At that time, the only thing that was unknown was which element, when assembled in a mass, could cause a chain reaction.

Nuclear fission was unintentionally discovered by Otto Hahn and Fritz Straussmann in December 1938 while they were experimenting with radiation on uranium. The scientific community led by Neils Bohr in the Atlantic region shared this discovery. Within a few days, the main concern among scientists was what would happen if Hitler built a risky weapon that harnessed the enormous energy found inside each atom. In 1939, Leo Szilard, who was inspired by Einstein, penned the renowned letter to US President Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt promptly approved the Manhattan Project, which involved creating the atomic weapon.

Making the Engineering marvel

Leslie Groves appointed Dr. J. Oppenheimer as the project manager for the Manhattan project. The US Military Policy Committee, which served as Henry Stimson’s war counsel, sought to construct two or more atomic bombs. One was used to demonstrate the bomb’s strength, and the other was used to alert enemies like Japan, Germany that additional bombs were now in their arsenal. Scientists suggested a basic shotgun design based on U235. This design calls for a set of uranium U235 rings to collide with another set of U235 rings as they move at a speed of 3000 m/s within an artillery tube. U235 rings will reach super critical mass as a result of this hitting. Once a small number of neutrons are hit by the internal initiator (beryllium+polonium) inside the artillery tube, this super critical mass will begin a nuclear chain reaction. There were difficulties even though the design seemed straightforward. The manufacture of uranium 235 is one of these difficulties. Only a few kilos of U235 could be produced in factories for a few tons of uranium U238 (natural uranium). Likewise, only 5 kg of U235 can undergo fission out of a total of 100 kg.

Scientists began searching for substitute fissionable elements that may trigger nuclear chain reactions as a result of this inefficiency. Later, scientists discovered that the isotope known as plutonium made large-scale chain reactions and nuclear fission conceivable. This Plutonium (Pu-239) is primarily synthetic; it is extremely uncommon in nature. A chemical procedure at a chemical industry can separate this element. Plutonium was simple to create in chemical factories in large quantities, and its fissionable efficiency was significantly higher than U235-based designs.

When scientists tried plutonium material with shot gun based approach, they faced failure. PU-239 rings that were fired inside an artillery tube at 3000m/sec evaporated before reaching their target rings. Scientists discovered that an implosion method was necessary to create fission for plutonium-based bombs. This implosion method will help PU-239 material in form of sphere to achieve super critical mass. At that time, the implosion-based bomb was considered to be a very cutting-edge scientific endeavor.

In this form of implosion, the plutonium sphere must be crushed symmetrically in all directions in order to become super critical (to create a chain reaction and release massive energy). Complex array of explosive Baratol together with an implosion lens were set around the plutonium sphere in order to crush it symmetrically. The blast was focused inward using an implosion lens in the manner of a converging convex lens. To set off the Baratol explosives fire simultaneously, 32 different detonators were made to fire concurrently. At the same time as occurred, a polonium/beryllium initiator (to produce free neutrons) was also activated. The compressed plutonium sphere would become “super critical” if all of the detonators and the initiator went off as intended. If the initiators did not fire simultaneously, the plutonium was subjected to an asymmetrical force.

Scientists were able to test shotgun-based designs on a modest scale at nearby laboratories with small explosives, even though U235-based and plutonium-based designs were research experiments. Implosion-based design was fraught with difficulties and unknowns. Scientists decided to validate a plutonium-based weapon in actual scale after taking these factors into account. Both the implosion device and the testing location were given the names “Gadget” and “Trinity,” respectively.

16th July 1945, 05:29:45, firing circuit of Gadget closed, 32 detonators fired simultaneously, shock waves generated by explosives travelled symmetrically with implosion lens acting as main medium. The plutonium spherical mass suddenly condensed to an eyeball-sized mass and reached supercritical mass. The beryllium/polonium initiator is now colliding with this compressed plutonium super critical mass. This initiator emits neutrons that begin to puncture the supercritical mass, starting a nuclear chain reaction. A huge amount of energy was unleashed in a few of milliseconds. Trinity test results were announced as an exceptional success in a matter of minutes. With the help of some 200 outstanding scientists and tens of thousands of employees on the Manhattan project, human civilisation entered the nuclear era.

How the scientists fought for humanity during atomic bomb creation & later

“Operated on this morning. Diagnosis not yet complete but results seem satisfactory and already exceed expectations.”

This telegram was delivered to Stimson, the secretary of war, on July 16, 1945. Its about trinity test success. At that time, he was in Germany attending the Potsdam Conference alongside Truman. After learning this, Truman felt incredibly confident and eager. With this increased self-assurance, he began to dominate Stalin at the Potsdam Conference, refusing to allow the Soviet Union for any concessions in the Mediterranean or Turkey for the post-World War II consolidation between West and the Soviet Union. The atomic bomb therefore entered politics, serving as the catalyst for the US and Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons race and cold war.

Few excellent scientists are aware of their moral obligation not to advance this dangerous weapon. When the great power of the atomic bomb becomes apparent, they have foresaw that a nuclear arms race will ensue. They(including Oppenheimer) proposed that all scientists worldwide should be informed of and encouraged to disclose the atomic bomb’s secrets. However, the US and British governments chose not to heed their cautions. A US B29 bomber dropped the “Little Boy” U235-based weapon on Aug. 6, 1945, killing 80,000 people immediately and another 100,000 within a few days as a result of radiation illness. Stalin was furious, and the Soviet Union aggressively expanded its bomb research, setting the stage for a nuclear arms race.

Even though many brilliant physicists contributed to preventing the threat posed by atomic bombs, certain great scientists played a significant role that went unnoticed by many. Listing here few

Neils Bohr:

Neils Bohr is well recognized for his important contributions to quantum physics, for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1925. On the other hand, he was one of the first opponents of using an atomic weapon on a civilian population. He brought the news of Germany’s first successful nuclear fission to the United States in 1939.

He then claimed that the impending end of war will be brought about by the discovery of nuclear fission. He attempted to persuade “Roosevolt” and “Churchill” not to deploy the atomic bomb during World War II by warning it would trigger a nuclear arms race among major powers. When he attempted to explain the risks associated with nuclear weapons, Churchill reprimanded him like a wayward schoolchild. Even Roosevelt received his complaint about Neils Bohr’s unnecessary involvement in political matters. After World War II, he encouraged scientists to support global efforts to reduce nuclear weapons.

Leo Szilard

Szilard requested Einstein in 1939 to convince Roosevelt to launch the atomic bomb project right away because he believed Hitler would soon construct a similar device. But after a number of years, he has transformed. He fought tooth and nail to persuade Stimson, the secretary of war, not to bomb civilian areas just a few weeks before the bombs of Hiroshima. Knowing the immense harm that this weapon would cause, he produced a petition that was endorsed by numerous nuclear physicists. However, the president never received the petition.

To warn Japan how devastating the weapon was, he even advised US war machinery to drop an atomic bomb in an area that was not populated. He also advocated for international scientific cooperation for the development of nuclear energy, like Bohr. He was heartbroken by his inability to stop the bombings the Aug. 6 & Aug 9 attacks. After that, he declined to conduct any additional nuclear physics research.

Einstein & Oppenheimer

Einstein was sorry for his part in developing the atomic bomb. A few months before he passed away, he stated that signing the letter to President Roosevelt in 1939 was the biggest mistake of his life. “I wouldn’t have spoken out or even moved a finger if I had known that the Germans couldn’t make nuclear bombs”, he said later.

The atomic bomb’s creator, Oppenheimer, experienced depression after learning about the deaths in Hiroshima and Nagasaki because of his involvement in its development. Oppenheimer said to President Harry S. Truman during a visit to the White House in October 1945, “Mr. President, I feel I have blood on my hands.”Oppenheimer was named chairman of the General Advisory Committee. When Cold War tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union started to rise, he vehemently opposed the development of the hydrogen bomb — a “Super Bomb” envisioned by fellow Los Alamos scientist Edward Teller that was 1,000 times more potent than the atomic bomb.

Others

The “Federation of Atomic Scientists” was founded in November 1945 by roughly a thousand individuals working in Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, Hanford, and Chicago. They advocated for congressional action against military control of nuclear technology while wearing crew cuts, bow ties, and tab collars. A civilian-led atomic energy commission was established in 1946 for all their efforts.

Conclusion

Human civilization is currently heading towards the next technological breakthrough, such as AI. Like the great scientists who first changed the world in the 1940s. AI now seems to be an integral part of everyone’s life. Still, skewed AI systems and biased algorithms pose a threat to life and liberty, especially for those who are already marginalized in society. The greatest risk posed by AI to humans is yet not fully understood. Scientists and engineers must collaborate with governments to prevent such threats in the future.

Oppenheimer Film — A few thoughts

Oppenheimer, it’s a political film with some science and biographical value on it. The film progresses with nonlinear storytelling of Oppenheimer’s espionage trial as the main plot. Atom bomb-making and his personal life were side plots.

There is one interesting aspect in this film to correlate. In history along with Robert Oppenheimer, there was another scientist who shared one common thing. Apart from their stellar scientific successes, some even serving humanity, this scientist (Sergei Korolev) also faced a similar fate. i.e. government persecution. Sergei Korolev, the godfather of the USSR space program prosecuted by its government for espionage-related charges in 1938. He lost all his teeth and suffered a heart attack when he was in jail, forced to work in mines as bonded labor. Later he was released at the mercy of a few Soviet generals. He died at 59 in an ill-fated failed colon operation. The Soviet space program, once it was in pole position ahead of the US(at least 15 months), suffered a death knell to its ambitions in the space race with the death of Korolev. The Soviet space program wasn’t able to proceed further in making powerful rockets that can push toward the moon, thus losing the space race. Soviet space program got orphaned thereafter. During the cold war, scientists were often thrown with false espionage charges and made to suffer. Specifically, the US government was searching for alleged communists occupying positions of power. As per the film, Oppenheimer was shown sympathetic to communism in his initial days of research and allowed the functioning of unions (F.A.C.T.E) inside the radiation lab for workers. This sympathy later helped his enemies to frame a false espionage charge that he is a spy agent of the USSR. But in reality, real spies were working for the Soviet, inside the Los Alamos laboratory stealing the Manhattan Project secrets. These spies include Klaus Fuchs, Ted Hall, Harry Gold, David Greenglass, Ethel Greenglass, and Julius. With stolen secrets of the Manhattan Project, the USSR built its first nuclear weapon(plutonium-based) called RDS1, similar to one used in the Trinity project

In a scene when the US secretary of war was reviewing the final list of Japanese cities for atom bomb targets, he was shown casually saying “Remove “Kyoto” from bombing, me and my wife spent a holiday there last time’. The moment this dialogue appeared, there was laughter from the audience. Is this true? Yes partially. Kyoto was removed majorly from the list due to its cultural significance in Japanese civilization. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were final atomic targets but why not Tokyo? There is some underlying reason behind it. Tokyo is a big city as well capital, all war decisions were taken from here. The reason behind choosing Hiroshima and Nagasaki was the U.S. wanted to access the damage caused by its new destructive weapon. They need a town that until then stands fine, doesn’t have any major effects of bombings, and should have a significant population. But Tokyo was almost 80% razed due to multiple bombings earlier, doesn’t have any research value for new weapon. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed later causing collateral damage. In another scene, when a researcher asked why we need to use an atomic bomb as already Germany surrendered?. The sublime answer to this question is also the same as Japanese targets

Throughout the film, multiple Nobel prize-winning physicists like Albert Einstein, Neils Bohr, Edward Teller, Richard Feynman, Isidor Rabi were shown. By the end of the film, Oppenheimer visualizes a bleak future, with multiple nuclear warheads crossing the atmosphere, creating nuclear arms race and destruction among nations. Though nuclear weapons are dangerous, In reality, they had created a strategic restraint among powerful nations, postponing/preventing any third world war.

Pervez Musharaff — My Memoirs

In the last few years, relations between India and Pakistan have always been tense and turbulent. Once upon a time after the nations were torn during independence and post Bangladesh independence war, there was peace between India and Pakistan, trade flourished between the nations, Indian cinemas were opened for the Pakistani public after decades, the Indian cricket board saved the Pakistan cricket board from financial bankruptcy, and many more. All this happened during the Musharraf era when he was ruling the country as dictator and president. As a chief architect of the Kargil War, he caused the unnecessary loss of 527 Indian soldiers and innumerable Pakistan soldiers lives from the Kargil war. From the 1971 war to 2007 India-Pakistan relations, Musharraf has played a critical role. Musharraf, former dictator and president of Pakistan, passed away on Feb 5. As a regular follower of India-Pakistan & South Asian geopolitics for the last few years, I am writing a few of the memoirs that I observed about him in news in the last 3 decades.

Initial Years, 1971 war

During his initial childhood years, Musharaff was brought up in Turkey. He was an admirer of Kemal Atatürk and his vision of a Muslim state with modern secular deposition. His admiration was visible when he quoted in 2005 that Pakistan wants to become a modern state, and not a Westernized state, which is another shade of extremism.

When India and Pakistan went to war in 1971, he was one of the last soldiers planned to be sent from West Pakistan to East Pakistan. But the war ended bitterly even before he reached East Pakistan (current Bangladesh). Pakistan lost half of its nation. This created ever-lasting trauma within him. Once when he was asked about the 1971 war, he responded “I broke down and cried. All my brave soldiers cried with me. It remains a most sad and most painful day of my life. My anger at the General who had taken charge of the government and at some of the politicians of the time, still makes me see red”.

During the 1971 war, Musharaff lost one of his batchmate and close friend namely Major Rana Bilal Ahmed. In his memory, Musharaff named his only son Bilal.

Kargil War

Musharaff was a brigadier and commanded troops during India — Pakistan Siachen skirmishes in 1986. After India captured Siachen glacier heights, Musharaff tried multiple attempts to recapture Siachen heights, but all his attempts to dislodge Indian troops failed. This Siachen obsession drove him to make a blueprint for the Kargil war.

When Benazir Bhutto who was then the Prime Minister of Pakistan, in 1996 learnt about Musharaff Kargil’s plans through intelligence networks, she warned the general not to go ahead, as the war will end in humiliating status for Pakistan in world geopolitics.

In October 1998, fearing risk in his rule from Jahangir Karamat (chief of army staff, COAS, of Pakistan Army — 1998), Nawaz Sharif who was the Prime Minister appointed Musharaff the COAS, firing Jahangir Karamat. At that time, Musharaff was little known to the outside world. Nawaz Sharif believed Musharaff and Ziauddin (ISI chief -1998) will keep their job safe, but the opposite happened a few months later.

In 1999, defiant Musharaff went ahead with his Kargil plans. His plan was simple and tactical: capture the Kargil mountains in winter, overlook Indian National Highway 1 (NH1) from mountain heights, cut the supply lines going from Srinagar to Leh, and bring international mediation for the Kashmir issue. NH1 is the lifeline for troops staying in Leh and Siachen glacier. It is only land route through which logistics supplies needed for the army in Leh are delivered through trucks. In the winter of 1998, Pakistan troops of the Northern Light Infantry captured the Kargil mountains in name of irregulars. Panicked India, responded swiftly bringing back troops, howitzers, and aircraft to fight against intruders. With a combined Indian military response and international pressure, all intruders were pushed back giving a humiliating defeat to Musharaff’s plans. The entire Kargil operation was secretly executed by Musharaff keeping Nawaz sharif in dark about the Kargil.

Nawaz Sharif & Musharaff during Kargil

Kargil War — India Victory

Kashmir post-Kargil war, coup, Agra Summit

In 1999, Nawaz sharif’s move to instate Musharaff as COAS backfired. After a few months of an uneasy relationship with Sharif & Kargil humiliation, Musharaff toppled sharif’s rule and banished him to Saudi Arabia. Many countries including India condemned this move.

After Kargil’s humiliation, Musharaff and the Pakistan security establishment wanted to avenge the loss in Kashmir. Kashmir insurgency/terrorism touched its zenith when Musharaff was acting as COAS and post-Kargil war. The number of fedayeen attacks increased several times post-Kargil war. Every month, there was the loss of so many human lives including soldiers and civilians on both sides.

Even before the term “Surgical strikes” was invented, Indian and Pakistan troops often cross their respective borders, commonly known as Lines of Control and kill opponent soldiers to avenge their losses. Between 1998 and 2013, there were 9 Indian raids inside Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, as officially acknowledged by Pakistan. One of the bloodiest Pakistani raids happened in February 2000. Ilyas Kashmiri, a notorious HUJI/Al-Qaeda terrorist led a guerilla attack attacking an Indian post located in an unfavorable position surrounded on all 3 sides by Pakistani posts. All 7 soldiers inside the Indian post were killed in the attack. The most gruesome of this attack was, one of the soldier head was decapitated, taken back to Pakistan Kashmir, and brandished as a trophy. As per media reports, Musharaff honored Ilyas Kashmiri for this gruesome act with prize money of one lakh Pakistan rupees.

Terrorism emanating from Pakistan was giving sleepless nights to the Indian government between 1999 and 2000. In 1999, an Indian Airlines airplane (IC-814, enroute from Kathmandu to New Delhi) hijack paved way for the release of Masood Azhar and the birth of a dreadful terrorist group called Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). A few months later, in October 2001, JeM conducted a suicide bombing in Kashmir legislative assembly killing 38 civilians.

Tragedy struck India again with the dreaded 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Many villages were flattered by the significant number of fatalities from the earthquake. At this moment, Musharaff telephoned Vajpayee and offered humanitarian assistance from Pakistan. This is another ice-breaking moment after the Delhi-Lahore bus confidence building measure (CBM). India accepted the assistance, followed by the Agra summit for peace talks. Agra summit did not yield any major progress, as Musharraf hastily withdrew from the summit as he adamantly wanted to discuss Kashmir on his terms.

9/11 attacks, Indian Parliament Attack, Operation Parakaram

In the 90’s most US citizens believed that their nation is impregnable to any foreign initiated attacks on their homeland. But that belief was shattered on Sept 9, 2001. A few planes struck lofty buildings, bringing down the buildings to rubble. Thousands died in the terror incident, and it questioned the superpower status of the US. In the next few days, Pakistan was coerced to cooperate with the US for upcoming planned retaliations. A few days after 9/11, US deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage discussed with Gen. Mahmoud Ahmed (ISI director). In that he made a direct threat to Ahmed, commonly paraphrased “Pakistan will be bombed to the stone age if it doesn’t cooperate”. Musharaff accepted to help the US in list of planned retaliation activities. He defended saying “We are surrounded by enemies like India/Iran and Pakistan had no other option other than aligning with US interests”.

After the 9/11 terror incident, World changed its perception of militancy and insurgency. Earlier left leaning nations were praising and defending militant activities happening in Palestine, and Kashmir. This perception changed 180 degrees after the 9/11 attacks. Pakistan which earlier protected Kashmir militant groups in name of insurgency faced now serious setback. It was not able to market terror groups like JeM, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) in world forums.

Gazi Baba alias Shabaz Khan was one of the most dreaded terrorists in Kashmir insurgency history. He was the brain behind multiple horrendous attacks inside Kashmir valley, those attacks include the 2001 Kashmir assembly suicide bombing, and car bombing attacks on Army headquarters, Srinagar. This time he masterminded an attack outside J&K. On 13th of Dec 2001, the Indian Parliament was infiltrated and attacked by five armed terrorists which resulted in the death of nine Indians, followed by the 2002 Kaluchak Massacre by three fedayeen terrorists that resulted in the deaths of 34 most of whom were wives and children of Indian soldiers.

Kaluchak Massacre Pic Courtesy:OpIndia

Kaluchak Massacre was a watershed moment. It crossed the threshold of the Indian establishment. Enraged India went ahead with Operation Parakaram threatening a limited strike on Pakistan Kashmir targeting camps of JeM, LeT. Both countries enmassed tens of thousands of troops near their borders. Western nations feared a full-blown nuclear war between India and Pakistan. The US and other western countries put significant pressure on Musharaff to act on JeM, LeT. Intense diplomacy between western nations and Musharaff resulted in a commitment by Pakistan, to crack down on jihadi organizations and infrastructure. Both countries withdrww troops after peace negotiations.

Musharaff gave a famous handshake with Musharraf in 2002, peace negotiations thereafter led to the famous 2003 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan.

2003 Ceasefire, India Pakistan Peace process

2003 LOC ceasefire is the first and most important confidence-building measure. It is a landmark agreement and it helped in maintaining the peace along the Line of Control (LOC). Villagers along the LOC on both sides were happy with this move. With a ceasefire in place, Indian troops were able to fence the borders effectively, which reduced a significant percentage of militant infiltration from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The number of positive developments followed the ceasefire agreement. The peace process followed further with the opening of Indian cinemas to the Pakistan public. After nearly 40 years, Indian films were screened in Pakistan. Like previous army generals, Musharaff used cricket as a diplomacy tool to improve the ties between the two countries. Good bonhomie between the Indian and Pakistan public was highly visible during the India-Pak cricket series. When Indian cricket fans visited Lahore for a cricket match, hotel owners and taxi drivers refused to accept money. Government ministers and lawmakers who visited the Pakistan during cricket series were provided red carpet In Kashmir too, to strengthen CBM, a bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad was inaugurated. Though Musharaff’s four-point solution to Kashmir didn’t get confidence from the Indian establishment, it was a bold attempt to deviate from the previous hard approach of “self-determination” in Kashmir.

As seen in the last several years, whenever the India-Pakistan peace process begins to go positively, there are elements inside Pakistan that sabotage the peace process. During the Musharaff era too this happened multiple times. When Musharaff cracked down on JeM due to US pressure, he faced an assassination attempt in 2004. Kashmir militants were not happy with the peace process after 2003. On the day on which the bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad was inaugurated, there was a bomb attack in the Srinagar Tourism Reception center. United Jihad Council (UJC) leader, Syed Salahuddin once told “Musharraf retreated on Kashmir under international pressure and presented four-point formula without any guarantee

Finally

When Musharaff was ousted in 2008, he left a mixed legacy concerning India-Pakistan relations. The peace process that was developed during his regime was completely stalled due to the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. India-Pakistan relations have never attained that zenith once achieved during the Musharaff era again in the last few years. In the last few months when he ruled, terrorism and violence started to rise significantly in Pakistan, which later created mayhem inside Pakistan for the next several years from 2008. When Musharaff left, Kashmir’s moderate separatist leader, Mirwaiz Umar Farroq, was dismayed by his ouster, while the hardline faction of the Syed Ali Shah Geelani camp celebrated his removal.