In history, after India and Pakistan became nuclear
powers there were 2 instances where both countries came to brink of full-scale
war. First instance was when Indian parliament, attacked by Pakistan Jihadis.
In this instance, the main target was massacre of Indian legislators.
Thankfully with few fatal casualties, legislators were untouched. Still,
furious India went with operation parakaram, mobilizing tens of thousands of
soldiers towards Pakistan border, placing mines and other war equipment near
border, simulating battle field scenarios. Six months later tensions
deescalated & relations between two nations cooled.
2nd Instance
was on Feb 14 2019.More than 40 Indian CRPF soldiers were killed in VBIED
suicide attack near NH1 highway, worst terrorist attack in Kashmir militancy
history. Suicide attack was so gory that some of soldier coffins contain few
body parts than full body itself. In next few hours/days, pictures depicting
gory of the attack went viral in twitter/facebook enraging Indian citizens.
Opposition parties too questioned the attack whether its because of major
intelligence failure. After nearly 15 days, Indian fighter planes went inside
Pakistan and bombed one of jihadi training base in Pakistan. Pakistan
retaliated back, bombing near LoC. In subsequent dog fight, India lost a
fighter plane and pilot was captured. Thankfully due to intense diplomatic
effects of Saudi Arabia and other world powers impending nuclear war was
averted.
Since today marks 1st anniversary of this
Pulwama attack, this article explores origins of this attack and various
conspiracy theories around the attack.
Arrival of Online radicalization in Kashmir
Kashmir militancy origin can be traced back to 1989.
After several years of dreadful fighting, militancy graph in Kashmir reached
record low in 2014. Number of militants
came down to 50 odd in 2014, when compared to several thousands fighting in
90’s. This phenomena can be attributed to several factors like strong anti
infiltration grid built near LoC, slowly moved India-Pakistan peace process
between 2004-2013, Pakistan’s precarious economic condition & its terrorism
fight inside its own country.
When new government came in 2014, there were hopes the
India-Pakistan peace process will proceed further ahead. But India Pakistan
relations started to go backwards. This has its own effect in Kashmir valley.
When beef lynching’s happened inside Indian main land, there were big protests,
shutdowns in valley. Anger inside once less militancy prone area like south
Kashmir(Pulwama,Kulgam,Shopian) started to rise from 2015. Militancy once waned
in 2014, now resurged and evolved via new way called online radicalization. Militants
who once masked their face and running, started to show their faces via videos
with more fiery speech. In social media
driven (twitter/facebook/whatsapp) era, these videos eased communication gaps
between local youths and spread in domino effect. Every militant funeral in
south kashmir attracted thousands of villagers, became fertile recruit ground
for future militants. Words like martyrdom, images of new militants holding
guns, their lifeless bodies after death created new narrative of militancy
inside valley. Few journalists called the places like Pulwama as Kandahar of
kashmir, Tral as Torabora of kashmir, due to dangerous groundswell of militancy
support. Number of local militants surged and encounters between
militants/security forces increased.
This social media driven radicalization started in June
2015 with infamous Burhan wani gang. By July 2016, Burhan wani was killed. But
seeds sown by him was successful in methodical progression of militancy. His
videos created unprecedented number of followers. Death of Burhan wani sparked
major unrest inside valley in 2016. It took nearly 10 months for Kashmir to
return normal. Army camps which were removed previously as part of
demilitarization, now revived in areas Pulwama, Anantnag, Kulgam, shopian.
Jaish revival, Changed 2017 & Operation Allout
In Kashmir militancy, Jaish e Mohammed(Army of Mohammed)
the most dreadful ever terrorist organization. Earlier major terror attacks
like parliament attack, redfort attack, Akshardham temple attack were carried
by Jaish. After 2004, main commanders of Jaish in Kashmir valley, were
neutralized one by one and organization became defunct for nearly decade. In
2014, the number of jaish terrorists in Kashmir was almost zero, but never
completely wiped out, made to lie low by ISI. Seeing the unprecedented
radicalization in south kashmir, ISI put a blue print of jaish revival in south
kashmir. Old militants who were once sentenced and now resuming normal life
were recycled. One notable recycled commander among them was Noor Mohammad
tantray. Through amplified radical indoctrinations, Noor Mohammed built factory
of suicide bombers. Origins of 2017 Pulwama police lines attack, Srinagar
airport attack can be attributed to Noor Mohammed.
Security scenario in south kashmir completely changed and
became worse in 2017. Once sun sets and dark arrive, local people living in vicinity
of shopian, kulgam, Pulwama villages afraid to come out of their houses as
there was high anticipation of violence, encounters. Daily encounters, killings
increased manifold. Through social media & posters, Militants/OGW often intimate
& warn local people not to move in close proximity with security forces. Local
police officers, army jawans were abducted from their homes and killed in
orchards, to instill fear among locals not to join security forces When young local lad Lt Ummar Fayaz was
abducted and killed by militants in shopian, central government signaled
aggressive stance in dealing with militants.“Operation Allout”, an aggressive
approach in dealing with militants was announced in spring of 2017. Cordon and
Search Operations(CASO) & flush outs, which were once abandoned in
2003, were reintroduced in rural
hinterlands of south Kashmir.
Operation all out eliminated many militants ruthlessly
initially. It created fear psyche among young youths who want to join
militancy. Though Operation all out created dip in militant recruitment, but
still it could not stop youths, students joining militancy. Doctorate student
from Aligarh university joined militant rank & later killed. 32 year old
Professor, who has doctorate in sociology & faculty in university, joined
militant rank and was eliminated within 40 hours.
Crowds Disruption – a new tactics
By the time when operation allout was yielding some positive
results for security forces, a new trend started to morph during encounters and
CASO’s in late 2017 & 2018. Massive crowds which often show their presence
during militant funerals, started to move dangerously close towards the
encounter site. In this some were involved in stone pelting to disrupt the
security operations. These crowd not only involve in disrupting security
operations, but often help militants to escape. Hours after militants escape,
videos showing dramatic escape of militants will appear in social media.
Villagers who helped militants to escape often pride among themselves for the
act. Security forces despite having advantage of aerial surveillance (using
drones, choppers) & tight deployment, could not able to stop militants escaping with help of
assault mobs. This worrying trend made many A+ grade militants, escape from
security dragnet for quite long time.
Crowd mobilization on the encounter sites happens through
whatsapp groups, announcements via mosques and through word of mouth. During
CASO’s, security forces movement details were passed and shared among these
whatsapp groups, effectively mobilizing big crowds, pelt stones and helping
militants to escape. There were circumstances, where stone pelting youths
travelled from multiple miles to encounter site, to save militants. Crowd
disruption was major headache for security forces, it gave edge to the militant
outfits. Security forces already in active combat mode, has new burden of
controlling this law and order situation. To curb mob mobilization and stone
pelting, government suspended the internet in the areas where encounters
happens. Nearly 300 whatsapp groups which were used to mobilize stone pelters
have been shutdown. Few group administrators of locally operated Whatsapp
groups were identified, counselling has been by police. In encounter sites,
CRPF were deployed to control law and order situation. These measures yielded
positive results. Though these measures didn’t completely stop the crowd
mobilizations and subsequent militants escape, it drastically reduced the
militants escape success rate.
Sufferers of Operation Allout
when operation allout progressed through rural
hinterlands, human toll due to deadly battles was heavy. 300 militants were
killed, mostly locals including top commanders eliminated. Local civilians who
tried to disrupt the encounter operations were killed in cross duel between
militants and security forces. At least 140
civilians, mostly youth, have also been killed and hundreds of others either
blinded or injured in protests near encounter sites. Nearly 250 security forces, including Army, paramilitary and
police, have also been killed in the attacks and gun battles during the same
period. Houses and other huge material property belonging to Kashmir’s working
class and peasantry have also been destroyed in the encounters, as security
forces used heavy mortar shells and explosives to neutralize defiant militants
stuck in localities. In this period, significant number of political workers,
alleged informers were tortured and killed by militants
Operation All Out also enhanced
military concentration in south kashmir. Many new Army camps, paramilitary and
the SOG have been established at various locations roughly a distance of five
kilometers separating each. Residents privacy has been routinely breached, people
of all ages has been frisked during CASO’s.
Pulwama attack
In subsequent encounters, Jaish chief
masood azhar’s nephews Usman and Talha were killed in 2018. There was high
anticipation among the security circles for spectacular terror attack in 2019,
avenging the jaish chief nephew killings. Reports were circulating in national
media that afghan war veteran has successfully infiltrated the Kashmir. He is
expert in IED making and going to avenge the killings.
By 3:00PM Feb 14 2019, local suicide bomber rammed the security
convey with VBIED. Attack was worst in history of Kashmir militancy, as neither
of any single attack yielded these many fatalities. Jaish released video of suicide
bomber confining to the crime. Indian public enraged, balakot strike happened,
followed by Abinandan capture and release. In the first year anniversary, it
was found NIA Pulwama probe has reached virtual deadend. Militants & OGW
who coordinated this attack was either killed or captured. NIA could not able
to conclude the mastermind of the attack, as there was no solid information
Conspiracy theories & Intelligence failure
After Pulwama attack, government was heavily criticized for intelligence
failure. JK police explains the suicide bomber was grade c militant. In Kashmir
militant/terrorist classifications, Grade A,A+ militants are higher priority,
CT operations are planned on them. Intelligence networks heavily tracks these
militants to neutralize. Intelligence networks are more concerned about
decapitating the leadership which these grade
A,A+ militants own. Grade c militants are generally fresh recruits, many are
few days/months old. To escape from the
intelligence radar, jaish targeted these grade c militants for heavily radicalization
and preparations for suicide bombing operations. One among them is adil ahmed
dar who completed his mission on Feb 14
2019.
One of the mystery is how such large amount of RDX could have been
smuggled into valley from Pakistan through border, keeping the
military, CRPF, BSF, police, and intelligence agencies entirely in the dark. There
are reports that some explosives might have been moved in bits and pieces from sand
quarry via locals.
Conclusion:
Pulwama suicide attack was not first suicide attack in Kashmir. In
2001,16 year old Srinagar boy belonging to jaish drove a car, full of
explosives into Kashmir legislative assembly complex. Bombing killed 38 people
including civilians and security forces. After 18 years, suicide bombing returned
to Kashmir in Pulwama. Depth analysis needed to understand what made the
suicide bombing to vanish and reappear in gruesome way after 18 years.
There was peace process between India & Pakistan. Once it
started to dried up, Militant violence and disturbance across LoC started to
increase in incremental way. Ceasefire violations, fidayeen attacks, momin
mujahideen(guest fighters from Pakistan) in villages, IED attacks,finally
suicide bombing returned gradually one by one.
Suicide attack site in 2020, the patch in the road show extensive damage occurred in Feb 2019
Pic Courtesy: Ieshan wani
Mainstream political parties like NC, PDP, once acted as bridge
between India & pro independent/Pakistan separatists. After online
radicalization and trust deficit of these parties with locals, these parties
too lost their traditional support base. Generations changed and current
generation believe more in militant voices than to leaders of these political
parties. In Aug 2019, when central government annexed JK state, removing
article 370, the situation maintained fluid with no improvement till now. Political
vacuum in valley widened after article 370 abrogation. Currently both
separatists and mainstream politicians are discredited, this vacuum will swing
locals more towards militant voices across border. Though ground level
intelligence gathering was good in valley, challenges posed in cyber domain
were not tackled with counter narratives. Internet shutdowns in last few months
might have brought the militant recruitment pulse to decline. This is bandgap
measure, cannot be sustained in long time. Once the government decides to bring
back high speed internet, online propaganda videos will surf again,
radicalization of youths & street protests will return.
Militancy in Kashmir cannot be eliminated with kinetic security
operations alone. Both soft and hard approach can be applied to manage the situations.
In coming days, Peace in valley depends on how locals convinced with current situation.
