Saturday, April 2, 2022

5G/WiFi 6E adoption challenges in India

5G is the buzzword for the last few years in India. The hype that it created like “the movies of size 2GB can be downloaded in a few minutes” is everywhere for the last few years. 5G based mobile phones are in the market from 2020 and even low-cost 5G phones of less than 15000 INR there in the market. But why are customers not able to use 5G based mobiles in India. Until now no service providers are announcing their 5G services to customers. There are several reasons for this. Few of them are discussed here

Usecase for 5G

Mobile wireless communication has evolved from 1G to the current 5G technology. Every evolution has improved voice quality, data speed, and reliable communication from the previous generation. Data services have been introduced from 2G. Since 3G, every transition saw a major leap in data speed & this data speed transition was a talking factor in every progression. When 3G got introduced in 2010(in India), it provided enough speed to view YouTube videos(SD resolution) without any interruption and eased to use of GPS in mobile phones. Thanks to JIO, 4G got widely adopted after 2016. This helped users with videoconferencing, viewing HD youtube videos, and watching OTT streaming platforms with much ease. Recently introduced 5G is advanced and it is 60 to 120 times faster than its predecessor 4G. Low latency is one of the important features of 5G which helps in achieving this speed. Due to 5G’s low latency strength, millions of devices can be connected within a square km. data transfer close to 100Mbps between devices can be achieved.

Though 5G is a very advanced and very high speed, real use cases with 5G are complex and will take more time to deploy in the user environment. For example, one of the 5G use cases is the efficient implementation of the connected cars technology. In connected car technology, the vehicle is always connected to the internet via an embedded chipset or SIM inside the vehicle. A connected vehicle can send/access the data in the cloud, download software updates, and connect with other devices(IoT devices). With multiple sensors in the vehicle, the vehicle can share its current location, driver behavior, engine diagnostics, and vehicle activity (telematics) & surrounding environmental conditions to the cloud. This different collected/processed information from the cloud can help a driver and other passengers inside the vehicle. These include safety, entertainment, vehicle management, breakdown prevention, and many more

Big data transfer speed associated with 5G helps to assist the drivers, and passengers inside the vehicle in quick time. Example: Real-time monitoring of the vehicle’s part and a back-end algorithm predicts breakdowns associated with the part. This can be informed via phone, SMS, or push notification from the cloud.
Currently, in India connected cars adoption itself is in the infant stage, so it will take at least a decade to get mature. Though there are few vehicle manufacturers like MG that started releasing connected SUVs to market. Still, we are several years away from building full 5G based connected vehicles, as apart from in-vehicle technology, vehicle to infrastructure(V2I) related connectivity needs to be built from scratch. This V2I helps vehicles to communicate with road infrastructure and share/receive information such as traffic/road/weather conditions, speed limits, accidents

As like above-explained use case, though 5G has several advanced use cases like smart cities, autonomous vehicles, sports broadcasting, immersive entertainment, it may take several years to get adopted, unlike 4G for which it took only a few years.

Base station upgrades


Traditionally base station in wireless communication is used for connecting different wireless devices. These base stations nowadays are small and lie even in our housetops also. Since 5G technology (for higher speeds) uses higher frequency radio waves, different than earlier 4G LTE standards, base stations need to be revamped for 5G standards. Like its old predecessor 4G, 5G too can operate in low and mid bands of spectrum, but the speed associated with the 5G comes in higher bands of the spectrum(mmWave)(up to 20Gbps possible). To update the current 4G LTE-based base stations to 5G, multiple modifications like an additional set of antenna arrays, and transmitting devices are required. Since 5G differs significantly in the spectrum, modulation technique, these modifications are needed.

mmWave based 5G: 


Though mmWave which operates in a high band spectrum of 24Ghz — 40Ghz, helps to achieve max speed, it travels very short distances, also signals get easily lost/blocked in case of obstacles like trees. So 5G operating in a high band(mmWave) requires more towers when compared to its predecessor 4G. Small cell technology can help to alleviate some of the problems associated with mmWave based implementation.
Small Cell tower implementation in lamp post

These small cell-based towers are low-powered and don’t require much power like 4G. they can be positioned in ordinary places like street lights, traffic signals, electric poles. In India, small cell-based tower implementation is still in a very nascent stage. There is no framework yet initiated by the government for placing small cell towers in more affordable locations. Theoretically, small cell towers operate under permissible RF radiation levels. More study is needed in India before implementation in densely populated areas. Cellular Operators Association of India(COAI) is currently working with the government on defining the places where these small cells can be placed. The addition of more small cells will not be cheap, it adds further burden to carriers like airtel, Vodafone during the initial implementation. Since delicensing of mmWave is still under discussion mmWave based 5G is still a far dream. Even in developed countries, mmWave based implementations are limited and currently

Sub-6Ghz based 5G — India’s best choice:

Sub-6Ghz based 5G operates in mid-band between 2.4Ghz — 6Mhz. Though sub-6ghz based cannot produce enough speed like mmwave, it is better than 4G LTE in speed terms. China has rolled out sub-6ghz for its population. For India, sub-6Ghz is more suited(for now), and currently, all service providers favor sub-6Ghz due to the limited cost of 5G upgrades and more affordable to the users. Even most of 5G based mobiles currently in the Indian market are based on sub-6Ghz based.

Security challenges


5G’s major use cases are associated with artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous vehicles. All these use cases involve millions or even billions of devices interconnected and data in order of terabytes are transferred between them. Also, the nation’s critical infrastructure and safety-critical systems including water supply, electricity, hospitals will be interconnected using 5G in the future. There is a security risk that these millions of devices (connected under 5G) can be compromised in a very quick time in case of any hostile nation wants to wreck another country. As a consequence, countries cannot view 5G as just another leap in telecommunications. Nations view 5G’s strategic technology as critical national infrastructure.

RAN — Radio Access network is part of wireless infrastructure. It includes antennas, base stations, and much more and it connects networked devices like mobile phones and autonomous vehicles to optical fibre internet. Conventional telecom equipment manufacturers like Nokia, Huawei, and Ericsson come with RAN architecture proprietorial to them. Hardware parts are not interoperable between different equipment makers. Switching the existing network to another manufacturer for equipment will cost billions, making wireless carriers remain withcorresponding equipment manufacturers locked for years or even decades. Hardware and software associated with telecommunication technology were earlier dominated by western, European countries, but in recent years Chinese telecommunication equipment are deployed at a much larger pace in developing countries due to its cheap cost.

Chinese has successfully built 5G solutions end to end catering to different use cases like video surveillance, artificial intelligence, Due to geopolitical tussles, already countries started using either their indigenous telecommunication solutions or solutions from allies. Australia recently banned Chinese 5G solutions, primarily from Huawei-based 5G equipment. Australian national security team was able to unequivocally conclude that 5G based on Chinese was a clear security risk, an entire national grid of telecommunications can be made useless in case of any war.

In the case of India, many of our current telecommunication equipment (for 3G/4G) associated with service providers like BSNL, Airtel, and Vodafone are based on Chinese origins like Huawei and ZTE. Though recently India didn’t allow its service providers like Airtel, Vodafone to use Chinese equipment for 5G trials(in May 2021), Neither India still didn’t have any blanket ban on Chinese equipment like the US or Australia nor it didn’t formulate any committee to study the ill effects of Chinese equipment (like the UK or Australia did) for telecommunication carriers. Recently another service provider namely JIO announced their entire 5G solution will be indigenous was encouraging

Spectrum allocation, Initial investments, and ARPU cost


Spectrum auctions happened in India over the last several years related to 2G,3G, and 4G. Spectrum auctions are lifelines for service providers. GoI owns the spectrum of airwaves and its auctions to various service providers. These frequency bands related to the auction include 900Mhz to 2400Mhz. In the last few years, GoI could not get the expected spectrum price. For example, in 2016, GoI expected 3.92 lakh crore from auctions, but after the auction, it was able to grab only 60000 crores. Telcom companies are already facing increased financial stress due to disruptive prices. There is more doubt about how successful, the auction will be for 5G if the government sets a very increased price like in 2016. Along with costs needed for revamping the 5G infrastructure, this spectrum cost will further burden service providers.

ARPU an acronym stands for Average revenue per unit. It is used by telecom companies to identify the profitability generated from each of its users or subscribers. Service providers can increase their capital investment only if ARPU increases. In the case of 5G, for the Indian market, there is still a dearth of 5G based use cases. ARPU increase for a typical period w.r.t 5G, is still unknown. This adds another risk to the service providers. Since the initial capital investment for 5G is big & financial liability for the 4G to 5G transition is already adding more stress to service providers if the ARPU didn’t improve for a service provider in the specific period. It will create a big risk of closing the service itself

Conclusion:


5G technology cannot be seen as an incremental improvement, it is fundamentally transformative and disruptive for multiple businesses. As more countries incorporate the 5G, India can take a cue from countries like Singapore, Egypt, China, and Hongkong for efficient implementation. Though 5G can enable digital transformation to build a better-connected environment, its path of transition from 4G to 5G involves multiple challenges as explained here.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed within the content are solely the author’s and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of the website or any company

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

India’s Position on Ukraine-Russia Crisis


In the current Ukraine Russia crisis, it is visible that India currently stands with Russia indirectly. By abstaining from voting in the UN security council (UNSC) as well as the General assembly, India appears to stand with its time-tested partner. Western countries especially the United States (US) and its allies now questioning India for not morally supporting Ukraine at the time when it is invaded by Russia.




United Nations General Assembly on March 2, 2022, brought resolutions to reprimand Russia for invading Ukraine and demanded that Moscow stop fighting and withdraw its military forces. In the voting process with 193 member states, 181 participated in the vote. Of those, 141 countries supported the resolution condemning Moscow and five were against it - namely Russia and a tiny group of its allies - Belarus, Syria, North Korea, and Eritrea. 35 countries abstained, including India, China, Pakistan.

In the interests vs principles dilemma, India has chosen the interests owing to the current tense south Asia geopolitical environment as well as the dependency of its defense equipment on Russia. While after the 2000s there have been significant improvements in India-Western relations, India still maintains an age-old policy of strategic partnership with Russia. There is not much change in the policies followed concerning Russia from Nehru to Modi.

Kashmir Veto & Russian strategic support

After the 1948 Kashmir war, Both India and Pakistan were searching for partners in UN councils to support them, for their respective Kashmir stance. During the initial decades, the US aligned with Pakistan and asked both India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir problem mutually. From in US geopolitical view, resolution of the Kashmir issue can bring India and Pakistan together, these both countries latter can be used as frontline states against communist China. For nearly 40 years, all the American presidents tried to resolve the Kashmir problem in a way India opposed. During the period of American presidents Harry Truman & John F Kennedy, efforts were most serious. Prime minister Nehru once told in frustration “I am tired of receiving moral advice from the United States.”

Due to above mentioned American maneuvers in favor of Pakistan, Nehru’s India started tilting towards the Soviet Union, officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). In 1955 USSR Chairman Khrushchev and Prime minister Bulganin visited India and they traveled across the length and breadth of India including states like Punjab, Jammu, and Kashmir, Tamil Nadu. When these leaders traveled to Srinagar, Khrushchev proclaimed in a public meeting that “Moscow was just across the border and if there is any trouble in Kashmir, Delhi should just give a shout”. This remarkable visit was the foundation for India-USSR Relations. This foundational moment was akin to the moment when Pakistan transferred Shaksgam Valley to China paving way for Sino - Pakistan strategic relations.




Though Russia exercised several vetoes in UNSC, its 100th veto in UNSC was in support of India’s position on Kashmir. When Western countries brought “Irish resolution” which urged India and Pakistan to enter negotiations for settlement of their dispute on Kashmir, the Soviet Union exercised 100th veto to block the resolution helping for India’s position.

When Sino – the Indian war happened in 1962, USSR stayed neutral maintaining “India is our friend, but China our blood brother” stand. USSR was diverted and distracted by the “Cuban Missile Crisis” in 1962. During the India - China conflict, the Soviet Union could not contribute much, as the two superpowers themselves were involved with potential nuclear conflict. Meanwhile, John F Kennedy, US president, informed Nehru that US military assistance can be possible only if India talks with the Pakistan military regime for the Kashmir resolution.

During the India-Pakistan war of 1965, when Pakistan was using the latest shiny weapons of US origin (including the F104 Starfighter fighter jet), India was left to use generations-old British weapons on the battlefield. Though the war ended in a stalemate and more favorable towards India, there was a complete change in foreign policy with India coming out of non-aligned policy. Lessons learned during the Sino-Indian war of 1962 and the India-Pakistan war of 1965 enabled India to establish strategic relations with USSR during Indira Gandhi as Prime minister. Defense modernization & reforms during the years after 1965, paved the way for stellar performance in the 1971 war for India. The Soviet Union has an important role in it.

Though India in the last two decades had steadily moved towards western countries, a significant fraction, nearly half, of arms and ammunition in Indian defense inventory are still of Russian origin with a significant portion that are decades old of soviet origin. Nearly 60% of the Indian defense equipment is of Russian origin, more of vintage USSR origin. Close to three-quarters of the Indian Air Force depends on Russia for its war equipment including, but not limited to Fighter jets SU-30MKI, MIG 29, Helicopters Mi-17 & recently acquired Air defense missile system S400. Russia played important role in the building of India’s nuclear submarines like INS Arahant. With INS Arahant abilities, India’s nuclear triad capability was accomplished in August 2016.

India’s UN abstentions

After 2000, When western nations brought resolutions against Russia in various UN councils, India remained neutral and abstained mostly on all occasions. On some occasions, they embraced Russia’s interests. Some of the instances include when UNHRC tried to adopt resolutions against Russia for exceeding the use of disproportionate force in the Second Chechen War, India voted against it. In May 2008 when a resolution was brought up in UNGA to recognize the right of return by refugees who were displaced in a Moscow-backed secessionist campaign in Abkhazia, India sided with Russia along with nine others including Iran, North Korea, Myanmar, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela. India again abstained in the March 2014 UNGA voting which was to uphold Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and denounce Russia’s annexation of Crimea. In 2016, when Syria’s Assad regime was bombing Aleppo mercilessly with Russia’s support, a Canada-led resolution was brought up in UNGA, India followed a similar traditional approach(abstaining) this time too saying, it does not mix humanitarian issues with political issues.

In some instances, Russia too voted against India or remained neutral. Those few instances include when the security council brought a resolution against India & Pakistan for a nuclear test. Russia under Boris Yeltsin supported this resolution saying, “India has let us down with its explosions”. He just stopped calling strong action against India with these remarks. Another instance happened in 2019. when China brought a UNSC resolution against India for removing article 370 in its state Jammu & Kashmir, Russia remained neutral without issuing a veto, thus safeguarding its interest with China and Pakistan. US and France had brought down the resolution with their veto power.

Geopolitical situation & Thucydides Trap

Thucydides Trap — a popular term coined by American political scientist Graham Allison, frames the current relationship between US and China. As per the term, the current emerging power is China and it seems to challenge the existing superpower US as an international hegemon. To contain China, the US has framed several initiatives like the Asia Pivot policy (which is obsolete from the Trump era), QUAD. Currently, India is one of the most strategic allies for the US and its active participation in strategic groups like QUAD had increased tensions between India and China in the last several years. Galway Valley skirmishes and the loss of soldiers on both sides were the tipping points of India – the China confrontation in recent years. In case of any immediate conflict between India and China, it needs USSR equipment that includes maintenance and spares for the war equipment. Western nations cannot address this shortcoming in foreseeable future.

Pakistan Russia relations were also increasingly becoming more stable and closer in the last few years. Russia maintained an anti-Taliban stance similar to India until 2012. Now in the last few years, Russia has maintained a Taliban’s sympathetic stance aligning with Pakistan’s stance. When Sergei Lavrov(Russian Foreign Minister) visited Pakistan in April 2021, he told his counterpart “I came with a message from my president that tells Pakistan we are open for any cooperation; whatever Pakistan needs, Russia is ready for it”. Pakistan foreign policy analysts and commentators observed this as a blank check offered by the kremlin towards Pakistan. Russia can use this as a trump card with India if India moves away from Russia opposing it in the Ukraine front. India is aware of this sensitivity.

These Geopolitical limitations might have turned out to be another thorn in the last few years concerning Russian relations. It would have made India not oppose Russia in UN councils, from the time it invaded Crimea to the current Ukraine crisis.

Conclusion

Putin’s plan in Ukraine hasn’t gone as planned. Kyiv didn’t fall in a week as expected by many international experts. Russia is not able to achieve what the US achieve in the 1991 Gulf war or 2003 Iraq war, where the US swiftly was able to topple the governments in a few matters of days. War is still raging on the outskirts of some main cities including Kyiv. Western pressure may increase on India in the coming days with no cessation of fighting between Russia and Ukraine. India following the traditional approach for the last several decades has reached an inflection point. It should introspect whether it should follow a similar fence sitter approach in the coming years or embrace more western countries for its defense and technological needs. For India, Russia is a time-tested friend and partner, but these factors alone should not stop India from taking a principled stance on international laws & sovereignty. India’s western allies are growing exasperated day by day on India’s silence and approach. US president Biden’s recent displeasure that “Washington is in still unresolved consultations with India” is one proof of that. India’s strategic partnership with the US in the last few years has increased a lot. Exports to western countries including from traditional textile-based products to software exports had increased in the last few decades. The US may use this as a trump card to force India to fall by its side in the coming days. India requires deft diplomacy in need of the hour, to balance defense needs from Russia with western countries’ support for any future Chinese conflict. India after evacuating its citizens can open a humanitarian corridor to support the Ukrainian citizens who are currently suffering from war. This can improve the moral image of India in the long term.

Sunday, January 9, 2022

My COVID Story - How i overcame Delta Variant

 It was a tsunami! Tsunami never announces its arrival, but whenever it crosses the shores, it rips whatever there triggering devastating impact. Similarly, during April 2021, COVID second wave was creating dreadful impact throughout India. A Tweet of BBC’s Nicola Careem about the condition of Delhi was heartbreaking and shook me to the core. News about lack of oxygen support, collapsing health care systems pushing people to limit of human endurance was frightening.

I got COVID19

In first week of May 2021, Tamil Nadu government had announced complete lockdown to tame the rising covid numbers. Every morning when I woke up, I always get distress news & ferocity of the second wave. At this instant, I believed lockdown and arrival of vaccines (at very nascent stage) can save me & my family from catching covid. But bad news arrived in middle of May. On May 16, 2021, my wife reported unusual fever. Fever did not subside with normal Paracetamol drugs. Next day we took RT-PCR test, she was reported covid positive. Within next 2 days, we (me and my kids) felt same symptom and were covid positive as well.

Real Challenge

Fever for my wife did not recede even after six days. When I called a private hospital for admission, doctor picked the call and enquired symptoms of my wife. I informed that my wife has had fever for the past seven days. Doctor yelled at me immediately “Why you didn’t get admitted even after having fever after 5 days, you are careless person”. “Admit immediately, she requires steroids treatments”. “Arrange me Remdesvir from outside for advanced treatment ASAP”. These were the words from a doctor.

In those days, obtaining Remdesvir from outside was complicated due to two main reasons. One: Since COVID19 crisis was peak at that time, demand was huge as common public believed this drug was magic bullet for covid. Two: TN government allowed to procure this drug only from govt hospitals personally by someone related to a covid affected patient. This was to avoid hoarding by private hospitals.

Getting scared by doctor tone, I left the option of private hospital. I started exploring for government care centers. Govt centers were overcrowded and getting admission was very tough that time. Personally enquired Tamil Nadu established call centers to arrange a bed. They asked me to wait one more day. At this moment, running out of options, reached to a friend inside secretariat for help. Help came in few minutes. A Senior Doctor & a Nodal officer of one of Govt care center called me and asked me to come immediately to care center established in Chennai Trade Center. Finally, there was good news.

When I took my wife to care center, there were guards at gates of care center who appeared more like thugs than normal guards with plain clothes. These guards refused to allow me inside. They threatened at me “Run away, No recommendations works here. You don’t belong to this area. You live in different area, go there”. We felt helpless again. After some brief conversions between police officials and the doctor who asked me to come here, we were allowed inside, and my wife successfully got admitted.

Next day, my condition got slightly deteriorated as well, with an oximeter reading of 93/94. My sons and I were still in home care. As fever prolonged for long time for me, I too decided to get admitted in same care center. Now finding a safe house for my kids was another challenge. Since this disease is very contagious, leaving them in relative or friend houses was near impossible. Situation was worse that my family and we even explored of sending my kids temporarily to an orphanage which was specifically taking care of kids for those whose parents affected by this disease. We spoke with few kids care centers regarding this. Thankfully one of my relative who was earlier affected with covid accepted to take care kids.

Period of Uncertainties

In basic care center, we were provided first line therapy for first few days. Irrespective of this, our oxygen levels fell below 90 on the fifth day. And we were asked to go for critical care center for treatment. We arrived in critical care center at night 2AM on the sixth day. We were brought to hospital in an ambulance. We were put under oxygen support immediately. I felt breathing issues for next few days. My blood tests showed my immune system was overreacting. Whenever I removed my oxygen mask, I observed a strange suffocating cough, originating in the upper abdomen.

After spending six days in critical care center, my wife and my conditions improved, oxygen levels returned to 93/94. Those six days made us feel that we were in war front. On a daily basis we were saw more and more sad stories around our bed. Nearly six people succumbed due to severity of disease. Every day there were poignant scenes like group of doctors running towards severely ailing patient at midnight, trying to revive them & relatives weeping at other end. At other instances there were relatives of patients losing their cool and shouting at doctors, crying at them. Doctors advised us to get discharged quickly just to avoid these scenes, as these scenes itself created more fear.

Positive Lessons & return back

First few days were very tough in home after hospital discharge. Due to steroid treatments, we were completely exhausted throughout day. I lost nearly 7-8 kgs. After 15 days, I was able to regain my partial strength. By end of 40 days from hospital, I was able to start my walking exercise. We slow and steadily returned to normal life after 60 days. Friends and office colleagues support played another important role during recovery phase.

I observed two abnormalities when I was hospitalized. My heart pulse was reaching 130 bpm & my oxygen levels were dipping every day. My doctor firmly told me “Both will revert to normal after reaching threshold, you need to wait for that threshold”. And it did revert back. My kids returned to our home after 15 days. My 70-year-old father who adamantly wanted to come to Chennai (even during peak phase) to help us, is now delighted.