The pendulum has swung back

There is a saying in guerrilla warfare, “You have the watches but we have the time”. This quote implies that “ if one side is willing and able to wait for their enemy out, they can defeat vastly big, far superior force”. This happened many times throughout history for different empires, countries. In specific to Afghanistan, it had happened at least thrice in recent history.

History: Britain, USSR, USA

To assert geopolitical influence in entire South Asia, Britain invaded Afghanistan in the 19th century. It ousted the ruling king and tried to control the population. After fighting several years of guerrilla war with afghan locals, Britain retreated with several thousand soldier losses.

Similarly, USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979, to insert its communist ideology in the religiously influenced country. USSR forces fought for nearly a decade with guerilla forces called mujahedeen. Countries like US, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, china supported mujahideen through economical & political means. By 1989, Russia left Afghanistan with fifteen thousand soldiers who died in the conflict, counterinsurgency operations.

In Sept 2001, there was a terrorist attack in the heart of America (twin tower attack). Nearly 2000 common civilians died in the attack. US intelligence agencies found the plan for the attack was orchestrated by terror group “Al Qaeda” in Afghanistan. After the local government in Afghanistan (Taliban) refused to cooperate in handing over terror suspects, US announced military operations by name of “War of terror”. After nearly 18 years of fighting, a historic accord happened on 29 Feb 2020. With this accord, both the US and local fighting groups (Taliban) reached peace deal, allowing US forces to morally exit from Afghanistan with more dignity.

To date, Afghanistan is a graveyard for foreign forces, who want to govern, control the population. Even financially, technologically, militarily the superior US, has to bite the dust in Afghanistan due to several factors. By mid-2004, US intelligence agencies & security forces believed the Taliban is done and dusted. There was calm throughout Afghanistan with reduced violence. After several decades, presidential elections happened successfully in 2004, electing a new president. But in the coming years after 2004, Taliban & other terror groups regrouped, revived to a stronger position. By 2016, the Taliban officially controlled 50% of Afghanistan. In all these 18 years, 3 US presidents tried their best to suppress the Taliban & defeat terror groups, but all of them unable to achieve what they planned.

Directorate S

Though there were several books in store for “war in Afghanistan”, book named “Directorate S” is one of best, most authoritative, stylishly crafted book, detailing events happened between 2001–2016. Author of this book is “Steve Coll”, 2 time Pulitzer award winner & current dean of much-acclaimed Colombia journalism school. His previous book “Ghost War” explains events happened between 1979–2000 in the Af-Pak region. Directorate S exactly picks up from where Ghost Wars end.

This book explores how the US entered afghan quagmire with raw emotions, to punish all those involved in the 9/11 terror plot. Book’s first chapter starts with Ahmed shah Massoud’s assassination, just 3 days before 9/11 in 2001(saying its Osama bin laden’s gift/loyalty to Mullah Omar, for protecting him inside Afghanistan). The end chapter explains how the entire world in 2016 has no defined solution in the Afghanistan war, even after nearly 0.15 million deaths and so many destructions. This book explains the role of Pakistan ISI’s historic proportions in helping Taliban revival. As per the book, war in Afghanistan majorly doomed because of the failure of the US government in dealing with motivations, apprehensions behind Pakistan ISI. Incidents between 2001–2016 explained in a more nuanced way.

Book has so many interesting topics/incidents like

• Ahmed Shah Massoud was the main opponent, fighting Taliban ferociously from 1996. On Sept 9, 2001, Al Qaeda suicide bombers posing as a journalist, detonated explosives hidden inside the camera, instantaneously killing Ahmed Shah Massoud. His death was major blow & shocking news for Indian/Iranian intelligence agencies, as both of them used Massoud for intelligence operations inside Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden orchestrated this attack to appease Mullah Omar. Mullah Omar relived on hearing death news as it will help him for complete dominance inside Afghanistan, but 3 days later 9/11 happened.
• After twin tower attacks, US Assistant secretary of state called Musharraf and threatened him saying “ ‘Be prepared to be bombed. Be prepared to go back to the stone age’ incase of non-cooperation from Pakistan. In response to the threat, Pak ISI chief went to Washington just a few days before the US war in Afghanistan. He warned US authorities, advised to not go by raw emotions of 9/11, further saying the war will be stalemate and will end in huge destruction. ISI chief gave an assurance that it will abide by US decision, irrespective of its opinion.
• By September 2001, when ISI chief went to Kabul for asking mullah Omar to hand over Osama, there was another message ISI cryptically informed to Mullah Omar. “Attack US hardly, if they start a war”
• US generals approximately know locations of Mullah Omar and other commanders. Instead of bombing those locations in swift mode, the US started the war in a traditional way i.e bombing airfields and air defense systems. It gave buying time for Taliban commanders to escape
• Taliban, not a simple network, its strength & sentiments lie deep inside rural Pushtun lands of Afghanistan. This same strength and sentiments later resurrected the Taliban more powerfully.
• US distraction with the 2003 Iraq war, underestimating Taliban and ISI. Zalmay Khalilzad, US negotiator with ISI until 2004, moved half away as ambassador to Iraq. Later Taliban resurged from this point
• Pakistan’s FATA, an alien world inside Pakistan until 2011. It was the heartland of all terror groups(including Uzbeks, Tajiks, Uighurs, Chechens.. so many). Teenagers and kids were easily brainwashed in the name of religion and sent for suicide bombing to various places.
• The sudden big rise of poppy cultivation inside southern Afghanistan and uncontrollable drug trade to the outside world. Poppy cultivation before September 2011 was one of the lowest in Afghanistan
• Mumbai attacks & ISI planning, ISI association with Kashmir militancy
• Osama bin Laden killing operation and after-effects of US relation with Pakistan.Movements of Osama inside Pakistan and some invisible hands protecting him. When 3-star generals met on the morning of May 2, 2011, for a conference, their anger and frustration was worst since the 1971 Indo-Pak war
• Accidental burning of Quran texts ( Parwan province) in 2012 & subsequent riots associated with it. After the burning incidents, there was a significant rise of “green on blue attacks”. The killing of John Darin Loftis by a loyal truck driver. Darin one of the key player used for WHAM operations
• Obama’s drone campaign and the dragon’s fire from the sky. Victims of drone campaigns and associated politics by ISI/Pak army
• Hamid Karzai often complained to US officials to take action inside the FATA of Pakistan. Karzai shouted one time saying, “if you want to end the war in Afghanistan, bombing should happen inside Pakistan and not inside Afghanistan”
• The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, mushraff links &alqueda celebrations inside Pakistan saying Benazir loyal asset of CIA
• Hijack attempt of PNS Zulfiqar by Al-Queda sub-continent network. The story behind this hijack attempt — a poor estranged Pak navy soldier treated badly by foreign forces. If this hijack attempt was successful, chances were there for a first-ever nuclear terror attack, as the ship was boarded with nuclear missiles as per some sources
• Corrupted warlords & their heinous crimes inside Afghanistan, forcing locals to believe in Taliban
• Insights into Pakistan army/ISI double games, from the start of chapter
• Pakistan army/ISI obsession with India in everything, whenever there is a discussion between US officials and pak/isi generals. Pak generals viewed every event with insecurity from India’s prism
• Spike of violent incidents/suicide bombings inside Pakistan after Musharraf sided with the US(War on terror). later it again spiked after killing of Osama bin laden
• Tactics/Strategies adopted by various US army generals/diplomats like Flynn, Petraeus, McChrystal, Peter Lavoy, Marc sageman, Robert Grenier, David smith, Kappes, and so many
• Tactics/Strategies adopted by various Afghan army/intelligence generals & ruling president includes Amirulleh Saleh, Asadullah Khalid, Nabil & Karzai
• Centuries-old bondage between Afghanistan and Pakistan in association with the Pashtun clan. Durand line politics and sentiments explored by ISI
• · Finally, lessons learned from the unending war

Conclusion:

For US forces, exit from Afghanistan is Déjà vu to whatever happened in the early 70s in Vietnam. When compared to Vietnamese forces (which were professionally trained), the Taliban is locally organized militia from Afghanistan and Pakistan numbering 10000–20000. The US lost nearly 3000 soldiers in the last 18 years, thousands were disabled. Major beneficiaries of this US-Taliban peace accord were Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia. All these nations now have leverage over Afghanistan via the Taliban. India responded guardedly to this deal. Indian intelligence agencies are already aware of the impact of this deal, as ISI might push the fighters (from Pakistan tribal areas who went inside Afghanistan for fighting along with Taliban) towards Kashmir. Hell will break if this happens, as a similar scenario happened in the late ’90s in Kashmir. The pendulum has swung back again, the Taliban returned again as major power inside Afghanistan. This change will have an impact on future geopolitical events in the region. Fingers crossed

#Taliban #Terrorism #Afghanistan

Pulwama, 1st anniversary, origins and challenges

In history, after India and Pakistan became nuclear powers there were 2 instances where both countries came to brink of full-scale war. First instance was when Indian parliament, attacked by Pakistan Jihadis. In this instance, the main target was massacre of Indian legislators. Thankfully with few fatal casualties, legislators were untouched. Still, furious India went with operation parakaram, mobilizing tens of thousands of soldiers towards Pakistan border, placing mines and other war equipment near border, simulating battle field scenarios. Six months later tensions deescalated & relations between two nations cooled.

 2^nd Instance was on Feb 14 2019.More than 40 Indian CRPF soldiers were killed in VBIED suicide attack near NH1 highway, worst terrorist attack in Kashmir militancy history. Suicide attack was so gory that some of soldier coffins contain few body parts than full body itself. In next few hours/days, pictures depicting gory of the attack went viral in twitter/facebook enraging Indian citizens. Opposition parties too questioned the attack whether its because of major intelligence failure. After nearly 15 days, Indian fighter planes went inside Pakistan and bombed one of jihadi training base in Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated back, bombing near LoC. In subsequent dog fight, India lost a fighter plane and pilot was captured. Thankfully due to intense diplomatic effects of Saudi Arabia and other world powers impending nuclear war was averted.

Since today marks 1^st anniversary of this Pulwama attack, this article explores origins of this attack and various conspiracy theories around the attack.

Arrival of Online radicalization in Kashmir

               

Kashmir militancy origin can be traced back to 1989. After several years of dreadful fighting, militancy graph in Kashmir reached record low in 2014.  Number of militants came down to 50 odd in 2014, when compared to several thousands fighting in 90’s. This phenomena can be attributed to several factors like strong anti infiltration grid built near LoC, slowly moved India-Pakistan peace process between 2004-2013, Pakistan’s precarious economic condition & its terrorism fight inside its own country.

When new government came in 2014, there were hopes the India-Pakistan peace process will proceed further ahead. But India Pakistan relations started to go backwards. This has its own effect in Kashmir valley. When beef lynching’s happened inside Indian main land, there were big protests, shutdowns in valley. Anger inside once less militancy prone area like south Kashmir(Pulwama,Kulgam,Shopian) started to rise from 2015. Militancy once waned in 2014, now resurged and evolved via new way called online radicalization. Militants who once masked their face and running, started to show their faces via videos with more fiery speech. In  social media driven (twitter/facebook/whatsapp) era, these videos eased communication gaps between local youths and spread in domino effect. Every militant funeral in south kashmir attracted thousands of villagers, became fertile recruit ground for future militants. Words like martyrdom, images of new militants holding guns, their lifeless bodies after death created new narrative of militancy inside valley. Few journalists called the places like Pulwama as Kandahar of kashmir, Tral as Torabora of kashmir, due to dangerous groundswell of militancy support. Number of local militants surged and encounters between militants/security forces increased.

This social media driven radicalization started in June 2015 with infamous Burhan wani gang. By July 2016, Burhan wani was killed. But seeds sown by him was successful in methodical progression of militancy. His videos created unprecedented number of followers. Death of Burhan wani sparked major unrest inside valley in 2016. It took nearly 10 months for Kashmir to return normal. Army camps which were removed previously as part of demilitarization, now revived in areas Pulwama, Anantnag, Kulgam, shopian.  

Jaish revival, Changed 2017 & Operation Allout

In Kashmir militancy, Jaish e Mohammed(Army of Mohammed) the most dreadful ever terrorist organization. Earlier major terror attacks like parliament attack, redfort attack, Akshardham temple attack were carried by Jaish. After 2004, main commanders of Jaish in Kashmir valley, were neutralized one by one and organization became defunct for nearly decade. In 2014, the number of jaish terrorists in Kashmir was almost zero, but never completely wiped out, made to lie low by ISI. Seeing the unprecedented radicalization in south kashmir, ISI put a blue print of jaish revival in south kashmir. Old militants who were once sentenced and now resuming normal life were recycled. One notable recycled commander among them was Noor Mohammad tantray. Through amplified radical indoctrinations, Noor Mohammed built factory of suicide bombers. Origins of 2017 Pulwama police lines attack, Srinagar airport attack can be attributed to Noor Mohammed.

Security scenario in south kashmir completely changed and became worse in 2017. Once sun sets and dark arrive, local people living in vicinity of shopian, kulgam, Pulwama villages afraid to come out of their houses as there was high anticipation of violence, encounters. Daily encounters, killings increased manifold. Through social media & posters, Militants/OGW often intimate & warn local people not to move in close proximity with security forces. Local police officers, army jawans were abducted from their homes and killed in orchards, to instill fear among locals not to join security forces  When young local lad Lt Ummar Fayaz was abducted and killed by militants in shopian, central government signaled aggressive stance in dealing with militants.“Operation Allout”, an aggressive approach in dealing with militants was announced in spring of 2017. Cordon and Search Operations(CASO) & flush outs, which were once abandoned in 2003,  were reintroduced in rural hinterlands of south Kashmir.

Operation all out eliminated many militants ruthlessly initially. It created fear psyche among young youths who want to join militancy. Though Operation all out created dip in militant recruitment, but still it could not stop youths, students joining militancy. Doctorate student from Aligarh university joined militant rank & later killed. 32 year old Professor, who has doctorate in sociology & faculty in university, joined militant rank and was eliminated within 40 hours.

Crowds Disruption – a new tactics

By the time when operation allout was yielding some positive results for security forces, a new trend started to morph during encounters and CASO’s in late 2017 & 2018. Massive crowds which often show their presence during militant funerals, started to move dangerously close towards the encounter site. In this some were involved in stone pelting to disrupt the security operations. These crowd not only involve in disrupting security operations, but often help militants to escape. Hours after militants escape, videos showing dramatic escape of militants will appear in social media. Villagers who helped militants to escape often pride among themselves for the act. Security forces despite having advantage of aerial surveillance (using drones, choppers) & tight deployment, could not able to stop militants escaping with help of assault mobs. This worrying trend made many A+ grade militants, escape from security dragnet for quite long time.

Crowd mobilization on the encounter sites happens through whatsapp groups, announcements via mosques and through word of mouth. During CASO’s, security forces movement details were passed and shared among these whatsapp groups, effectively mobilizing big crowds, pelt stones and helping militants to escape. There were circumstances, where stone pelting youths travelled from multiple miles to encounter site, to save militants. Crowd disruption was major headache for security forces, it gave edge to the militant outfits. Security forces already in active combat mode, has new burden of controlling this law and order situation. To curb mob mobilization and stone pelting, government suspended the internet in the areas where encounters happens. Nearly 300 whatsapp groups which were used to mobilize stone pelters have been shutdown. Few group administrators of locally operated Whatsapp groups were identified, counselling has been by police. In encounter sites, CRPF were deployed to control law and order situation. These measures yielded positive results. Though these measures didn’t completely stop the crowd mobilizations and subsequent militants escape, it drastically reduced the militants escape success rate.

Sufferers of Operation Allout

when operation allout progressed through rural hinterlands, human toll due to deadly battles was heavy. 300 militants were killed, mostly locals including top commanders eliminated. Local civilians who tried to disrupt the encounter operations were killed in cross duel between militants and security forces. At least 140 civilians, mostly youth, have also been killed and hundreds of others either blinded or injured in protests near encounter sites. Nearly 250 security forces, including Army, paramilitary and police, have also been killed in the attacks and gun battles during the same period. Houses and other huge material property belonging to Kashmir’s working class and peasantry have also been destroyed in the encounters, as security forces used heavy mortar shells and explosives to neutralize defiant militants stuck in localities. In this period, significant number of political workers, alleged informers were tortured and killed by militants

Operation All Out also enhanced military concentration in south kashmir. Many new Army camps, paramilitary and the SOG have been established at various locations roughly a distance of five kilometers separating each. Residents privacy has been routinely breached, people of all ages has been frisked during CASO’s.

Pulwama attack

In subsequent encounters, Jaish chief masood azhar’s nephews Usman and Talha were killed in 2018. There was high anticipation among the security circles for spectacular terror attack in 2019, avenging the jaish chief nephew killings. Reports were circulating in national media that afghan war veteran has successfully infiltrated the Kashmir. He is expert in IED making and going to avenge the killings.

By 3:00PM Feb 14 2019, local suicide bomber rammed the security convey with VBIED. Attack was worst in history of Kashmir militancy, as neither of any single attack yielded these many fatalities. Jaish released video of suicide bomber confining to the crime. Indian public enraged, balakot strike happened, followed by Abinandan capture and release. In the first year anniversary, it was found NIA Pulwama probe has reached virtual deadend. Militants & OGW who coordinated this attack was either killed or captured. NIA could not able to conclude the mastermind of the attack, as there was no solid information

Conspiracy theories & Intelligence failure 

After Pulwama attack, government was heavily criticized for intelligence failure. JK police explains the suicide bomber was grade c militant. In Kashmir militant/terrorist classifications, Grade A,A+ militants are higher priority, CT operations are planned on them. Intelligence networks heavily tracks these militants to neutralize. Intelligence networks are more concerned about decapitating the leadership  which these grade A,A+ militants own. Grade c militants are generally fresh recruits, many are few days/months old.  To escape from the intelligence radar, jaish targeted these grade c militants for heavily radicalization and preparations for suicide bombing operations. One among them is adil ahmed dar  who completed his mission on Feb 14 2019.

One of the mystery is how such large amount of RDX could have been smuggled into valley from Pakistan through border, keeping the military, CRPF, BSF, police, and intelligence agencies entirely in the dark. There are reports that some explosives might have been moved in bits and pieces from sand quarry via locals.

Conclusion:

Pulwama suicide attack was not first suicide attack in Kashmir. In 2001,16 year old Srinagar boy belonging to jaish drove a car, full of explosives into Kashmir legislative assembly complex. Bombing killed 38 people including civilians and security forces. After 18 years, suicide bombing returned to Kashmir in Pulwama. Depth analysis needed to understand what made the suicide bombing to vanish and reappear in gruesome way after 18 years.

There was peace process between India & Pakistan. Once it started to dried up, Militant violence and disturbance across LoC started to increase in incremental way. Ceasefire violations, fidayeen attacks, momin mujahideen(guest fighters from Pakistan) in villages, IED attacks,finally suicide bombing returned gradually one by one.

Suicide attack site in 2020, the patch in the road show extensive damage occurred in Feb 2019

Pic Courtesy: Ieshan wani

Mainstream political parties like NC, PDP, once acted as bridge between India & pro independent/Pakistan separatists. After online radicalization and trust deficit of these parties with locals, these parties too lost their traditional support base. Generations changed and current generation believe more in militant voices than to leaders of these political parties. In Aug 2019, when central government annexed JK state, removing article 370, the situation maintained fluid with no improvement till now. Political vacuum in valley widened after article 370 abrogation. Currently both separatists and mainstream politicians are discredited, this vacuum will swing locals more towards militant voices across border. Though ground level intelligence gathering was good in valley, challenges posed in cyber domain were not tackled with counter narratives. Internet shutdowns in last few months might have brought the militant recruitment pulse to decline. This is bandgap measure, cannot be sustained in long time. Once the government decides to bring back high speed internet, online propaganda videos will surf again, radicalization of youths & street protests will return.

Militancy in Kashmir cannot be eliminated with kinetic security operations alone. Both soft and hard approach can be applied to manage the situations. In coming days, Peace in valley depends on how locals convinced with current situation.