The pendulum has swung back

There is a saying in guerrilla warfare, “You have the watches but we have the time”. This quote implies that “ if one side is willing and able to wait for their enemy out, they can defeat vastly big, far superior force”. This happened many times throughout history for different empires, countries. In specific to Afghanistan, it had happened at least thrice in recent history.

History: Britain, USSR, USA

To assert geopolitical influence in entire South Asia, Britain invaded Afghanistan in the 19th century. It ousted the ruling king and tried to control the population. After fighting several years of guerrilla war with afghan locals, Britain retreated with several thousand soldier losses.

Similarly, USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979, to insert its communist ideology in the religiously influenced country. USSR forces fought for nearly a decade with guerilla forces called mujahedeen. Countries like US, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, china supported mujahideen through economical & political means. By 1989, Russia left Afghanistan with fifteen thousand soldiers who died in the conflict, counterinsurgency operations.

In Sept 2001, there was a terrorist attack in the heart of America (twin tower attack). Nearly 2000 common civilians died in the attack. US intelligence agencies found the plan for the attack was orchestrated by terror group “Al Qaeda” in Afghanistan. After the local government in Afghanistan (Taliban) refused to cooperate in handing over terror suspects, US announced military operations by name of “War of terror”. After nearly 18 years of fighting, a historic accord happened on 29 Feb 2020. With this accord, both the US and local fighting groups (Taliban) reached peace deal, allowing US forces to morally exit from Afghanistan with more dignity.

To date, Afghanistan is a graveyard for foreign forces, who want to govern, control the population. Even financially, technologically, militarily the superior US, has to bite the dust in Afghanistan due to several factors. By mid-2004, US intelligence agencies & security forces believed the Taliban is done and dusted. There was calm throughout Afghanistan with reduced violence. After several decades, presidential elections happened successfully in 2004, electing a new president. But in the coming years after 2004, Taliban & other terror groups regrouped, revived to a stronger position. By 2016, the Taliban officially controlled 50% of Afghanistan. In all these 18 years, 3 US presidents tried their best to suppress the Taliban & defeat terror groups, but all of them unable to achieve what they planned.

Directorate S

Though there were several books in store for “war in Afghanistan”, book named “Directorate S” is one of best, most authoritative, stylishly crafted book, detailing events happened between 2001–2016. Author of this book is “Steve Coll”, 2 time Pulitzer award winner & current dean of much-acclaimed Colombia journalism school. His previous book “Ghost War” explains events happened between 1979–2000 in the Af-Pak region. Directorate S exactly picks up from where Ghost Wars end.

This book explores how the US entered afghan quagmire with raw emotions, to punish all those involved in the 9/11 terror plot. Book’s first chapter starts with Ahmed shah Massoud’s assassination, just 3 days before 9/11 in 2001(saying its Osama bin laden’s gift/loyalty to Mullah Omar, for protecting him inside Afghanistan). The end chapter explains how the entire world in 2016 has no defined solution in the Afghanistan war, even after nearly 0.15 million deaths and so many destructions. This book explains the role of Pakistan ISI’s historic proportions in helping Taliban revival. As per the book, war in Afghanistan majorly doomed because of the failure of the US government in dealing with motivations, apprehensions behind Pakistan ISI. Incidents between 2001–2016 explained in a more nuanced way.

Book has so many interesting topics/incidents like

• Ahmed Shah Massoud was the main opponent, fighting Taliban ferociously from 1996. On Sept 9, 2001, Al Qaeda suicide bombers posing as a journalist, detonated explosives hidden inside the camera, instantaneously killing Ahmed Shah Massoud. His death was major blow & shocking news for Indian/Iranian intelligence agencies, as both of them used Massoud for intelligence operations inside Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden orchestrated this attack to appease Mullah Omar. Mullah Omar relived on hearing death news as it will help him for complete dominance inside Afghanistan, but 3 days later 9/11 happened.
• After twin tower attacks, US Assistant secretary of state called Musharraf and threatened him saying “ ‘Be prepared to be bombed. Be prepared to go back to the stone age’ incase of non-cooperation from Pakistan. In response to the threat, Pak ISI chief went to Washington just a few days before the US war in Afghanistan. He warned US authorities, advised to not go by raw emotions of 9/11, further saying the war will be stalemate and will end in huge destruction. ISI chief gave an assurance that it will abide by US decision, irrespective of its opinion.
• By September 2001, when ISI chief went to Kabul for asking mullah Omar to hand over Osama, there was another message ISI cryptically informed to Mullah Omar. “Attack US hardly, if they start a war”
• US generals approximately know locations of Mullah Omar and other commanders. Instead of bombing those locations in swift mode, the US started the war in a traditional way i.e bombing airfields and air defense systems. It gave buying time for Taliban commanders to escape
• Taliban, not a simple network, its strength & sentiments lie deep inside rural Pushtun lands of Afghanistan. This same strength and sentiments later resurrected the Taliban more powerfully.
• US distraction with the 2003 Iraq war, underestimating Taliban and ISI. Zalmay Khalilzad, US negotiator with ISI until 2004, moved half away as ambassador to Iraq. Later Taliban resurged from this point
• Pakistan’s FATA, an alien world inside Pakistan until 2011. It was the heartland of all terror groups(including Uzbeks, Tajiks, Uighurs, Chechens.. so many). Teenagers and kids were easily brainwashed in the name of religion and sent for suicide bombing to various places.
• The sudden big rise of poppy cultivation inside southern Afghanistan and uncontrollable drug trade to the outside world. Poppy cultivation before September 2011 was one of the lowest in Afghanistan
• Mumbai attacks & ISI planning, ISI association with Kashmir militancy
• Osama bin Laden killing operation and after-effects of US relation with Pakistan.Movements of Osama inside Pakistan and some invisible hands protecting him. When 3-star generals met on the morning of May 2, 2011, for a conference, their anger and frustration was worst since the 1971 Indo-Pak war
• Accidental burning of Quran texts ( Parwan province) in 2012 & subsequent riots associated with it. After the burning incidents, there was a significant rise of “green on blue attacks”. The killing of John Darin Loftis by a loyal truck driver. Darin one of the key player used for WHAM operations
• Obama’s drone campaign and the dragon’s fire from the sky. Victims of drone campaigns and associated politics by ISI/Pak army
• Hamid Karzai often complained to US officials to take action inside the FATA of Pakistan. Karzai shouted one time saying, “if you want to end the war in Afghanistan, bombing should happen inside Pakistan and not inside Afghanistan”
• The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, mushraff links &alqueda celebrations inside Pakistan saying Benazir loyal asset of CIA
• Hijack attempt of PNS Zulfiqar by Al-Queda sub-continent network. The story behind this hijack attempt — a poor estranged Pak navy soldier treated badly by foreign forces. If this hijack attempt was successful, chances were there for a first-ever nuclear terror attack, as the ship was boarded with nuclear missiles as per some sources
• Corrupted warlords & their heinous crimes inside Afghanistan, forcing locals to believe in Taliban
• Insights into Pakistan army/ISI double games, from the start of chapter
• Pakistan army/ISI obsession with India in everything, whenever there is a discussion between US officials and pak/isi generals. Pak generals viewed every event with insecurity from India’s prism
• Spike of violent incidents/suicide bombings inside Pakistan after Musharraf sided with the US(War on terror). later it again spiked after killing of Osama bin laden
• Tactics/Strategies adopted by various US army generals/diplomats like Flynn, Petraeus, McChrystal, Peter Lavoy, Marc sageman, Robert Grenier, David smith, Kappes, and so many
• Tactics/Strategies adopted by various Afghan army/intelligence generals & ruling president includes Amirulleh Saleh, Asadullah Khalid, Nabil & Karzai
• Centuries-old bondage between Afghanistan and Pakistan in association with the Pashtun clan. Durand line politics and sentiments explored by ISI
• · Finally, lessons learned from the unending war

Conclusion:

For US forces, exit from Afghanistan is Déjà vu to whatever happened in the early 70s in Vietnam. When compared to Vietnamese forces (which were professionally trained), the Taliban is locally organized militia from Afghanistan and Pakistan numbering 10000–20000. The US lost nearly 3000 soldiers in the last 18 years, thousands were disabled. Major beneficiaries of this US-Taliban peace accord were Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia. All these nations now have leverage over Afghanistan via the Taliban. India responded guardedly to this deal. Indian intelligence agencies are already aware of the impact of this deal, as ISI might push the fighters (from Pakistan tribal areas who went inside Afghanistan for fighting along with Taliban) towards Kashmir. Hell will break if this happens, as a similar scenario happened in the late ’90s in Kashmir. The pendulum has swung back again, the Taliban returned again as major power inside Afghanistan. This change will have an impact on future geopolitical events in the region. Fingers crossed

#Taliban #Terrorism #Afghanistan